Political instability between Russia and Ukraine – two countries that account for a large proportion of wheat exports has caused rice prices to skyrocket beyond the imagination of experts. According to statistics, wheat prices from 2021 to early 2022 can increase by 45% and continuously set new peaks.
The share of wheat exports by Russia and Ukraine accounts for 30% of the total world rice exports. According to estimates by French company Strategie Grains, the war could remove about 11 million tons of wheat exports from the Black Sea from the world market in 2021/22. This difference of up to 30% in the supply-demand balance has created opportunities for rice exporting countries such as the US, India, and Australia to push up rice prices, creating fierce price competition in import-dependent countries. .
The war that broke out at this period also directly affected the spring planting plans of Russia and Ukraine. March – the pivotal month for the sowing of spring wheat in Ukraine (the main production crop, contributing most of the time). output) has begun. However, the inability of Ukrainian farmers to sow seeds because the Ukrainian wheat belt is also the epicenter of the Russia-Ukraine war could result in the country’s wheat production, which contributes 14% of the country’s rice production. The world’s export of noodles (about 24-26 million tons/year) is seriously affected. In addition, March is also the main barley sowing month for Ukrainian farmers – who are contributing 18% of the world’s export barley output with 5-6 million tons/year, so the longer the war lasts, the longer the war will last. infrastructure damage, The more serious the human problem, the more the world supply of wheat/barley will be affected. Looking at the long-term, it can be predicted that rice prices will continue to rise due to a significant decrease in supply.
In addition, floods in Australia have severely affected the quality of the wheat crop here. The sharp decrease in supply that did not meet the demand has created fierce competition in the price of imported rice. Meanwhile, Australian rice is an import source accounting for a high proportion of the wheat import market in Vietnam. That is the reason why domestic flour products have continuously increased from 2021 until now.
According to experts, the domestic flour market will remain volatile and prices will certainly have many price adjustments in the second quarter of 2022. Not only flour, the price of other input materials also increased dramatically such as white sugar up 67%, cooking oil up 23%, gasoline up 48%, promising to be a great challenge to change the situation of Vietnamese bakery industry. Male.